It is interesting to consider that Japan may in fact be the appropriate model to study when the future of the world is being contemplated. After all, many of the major concerns of much of the world-an aging population, overcrowding, environmental challenges and overall quality of life-are already serious topics requiring immediate attention in Japan. In most other developed countries, these problems have not yet reached the crisis stage, so there will be an extended opportunity to learn from the Japanese approaches and to apply those solutions that best fit non-Japanese applications. Here are some background issues to consider:
Aging Population. Japan has the fastest aging population in the world, a combination of the longest life expectancy, a declining birth rate and a low level of immigration. It has been estimated that perhaps as many as 1/3 of Japanese will be 65 years old or older by the year 2050 if current trends continue. This is a major concern, not just because the medical facilities will be overburdened, but because there will not be enough working age Japanese to support the medical needs of the aged. Unless drastic changes are made, the Japanese population will significantly decline by the end the 21st century, perhaps to a level of as low as 50 or 60 million compared to 126 million today.
Overcrowding. Even with the essentially stable population at the present time, Japan is seriously overcrowded since most of the population chooses to live in the major cities. The Greater Kanto area, which includes Tokyo and nearby prefectures, has a population of well over 30 million, many of whom commute to work from distances of over one hour. This trend to urban living is continuing, with very few young people willing to live in villages and farms when the relative excitement of the Tokyo and Osaka areas is an option.
Environmental Concerns. Japan is a small country with an enormous industrial base in addition to the dense population and many areas of the country are suffering from serious environmental problems. Nearly 3/4 of the waste produced in Japan has traditionally been incinerated, often in "neighborhood" incinerators in populated areas, with the other 1/4 put into a landfill. This has created two major new problems-incinerator exhaust can include a high level of dangerous dioxins and viable landfill sites are rapidly reaching capacity. Recycling has become a necessity and new laws are being implemented that require manufacturers to reclaim used goods, including major appliances, after their useful life. Whole new industries are being created to support this effort, including new product design approaches.
Agricultural Self-Sufficiency. Recent reports indicate that Japanese agriculture produces only about 40% of the needs of the population on a caloric basis, by far the lowest of the developed countries. The U.S. by comparison produces well over 100%, consistent with its position as a major food export nation. The concern in Japan is that this subjects it to potential food "blackmail," as more and more of the staples (except rice) and even processed food products are imported from overseas. While this represents an opportunity for exporting countries, it is a serious issue for Japan to consider for the future.
Quality of Life. The Japanese have long been concerned that their crowded main island of Honshu and hectic working and commuting schedules, combined with small and often substandard housing, has resulted in a serious quality of life deficiency compared to other developed countries. They have referred to their usually small houses as "rabbit hutches" and have often written about the difficulties of day-to-day living even in times of prosperity. The long term solution, of course, is to allow the population to decline and encourage the movement of people away from the major cities to alleviate overcrowding, but that approach is not yet popular in Japan.
So What Can We Learn From Japan ?
It can be expected that Japanese attempts to deal with these problems will provide new insights and opportunities for other countries to consider as similar problems emerge. Many of these have some relationship to functional food and nutraceutical opportunities:
1. "Self-Health Management." The need to keep the Japanese population as healthy as possible for as long as possible to avoid a collapse of the medical care infrastructure will require long term less drug-oriented approaches to maintaining health. This is what the country's FOSHU (Foods for Specified Health Use) food category is designed to do, using common food forms as the method of delivery. New food ingredients will be studied for safety and efficacy implications and clinical findings will be published that have relevance to other populations. It is not likely that the final food products will be suitable for non-Japanese populations for taste and regulatory reasons, but the concepts and clinical test experiences will apply outside Japan.
2. Food Packaging. The need to avoid potentially dangerous incineration practices and to landfill problems will require the development of truly biodegradable packaging from sustainable resources. Current examples include the use of polylactic acid for food packaging and food waste handling, but many others will be identified as environmental regulations are strengthened in Japan. Many of these new technologies will be viable outside Japan as well and will eventually become cost competitive as experience is gained and production volumes increase.
3. Food Distribution. There are over 2.5 million beverage vending machines in Japan, one for every 50 people. This is one of the main reasons so many new products and new ingredients introduced in Japan are in liquid form suitable for dispensing from vending machines. The four leading new food products introduced in Japan in 1998 were all beverages able to be dispensed from vending machines.
In addition to the ubiquitous vending machines, the number of neighborhood convenience stores is also increasing, catering to walk-in customers requiring 24-hour service. These convenience stores have become interesting test market locations for new products and handle the larger sizes of beverages that are less suitable for vending machines. At least in the Tokyo area, convenience stores are the best sources of new product and new package ideas in the food area. The "just-in-time" approach to distribution is the perfect solution for a population that tends to shop on foot rather than by car and tends to purchase small quantities of food on a daily basis.
Although many of the distribution issues being addressed are unique to Japan, there are lessons to be learned that can be applied elsewhere. One example is solar powered vending machine technology, which may become an integral part of that distribution system in Japan in the future.
Although Japanese tastes and preferences and even health priorities are likely to continue to be different from those outside Japan, the approaches used to solve the country's immediate problems related to food and health are relevant worldwide. It is clearly a case of "necessity being the mother of invention" and if we can learn from both the positive and negative experiences in Japan and apply it to our situations, why not start there? After all, the Japanese are likely to be the first to get it right, since they essentially have no alternative but to do so.
NW
