For several years the world of dietary supplements has resembled a kind of Dante's Inferno, where all who enter are advised to "abandon all hope…" However, hope may spring eternal after all based on the most recent industry sales figures and consumer polls, which show slight increases in dollar sales, household penetration and consumer attitudes toward supplements.

According to data supplied to The Natural Marketing Institute (NMI), Harleysville, PA, by Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), Chicago, IL, the 52-week period ending September 15, 2002, saw an overall increase of 1.3% in total category sales (in food, drug and mass channels) of vitamins and minerals, compared to the previous 52-week period. While growth of 1.3% may not sound exactly vigorous at first blush, it is nonetheless a sign that the ship is no longer taking on water.

The supplement industry has experienced a series of extremes, from the ambitious growth of the 1990s to the doldrums of the early part of the 21st century. Replacement of market extremes with slow, steady growth is a reasonable goal of any mature industry, including supplements. Once the bleeding has stopped, the industry might then address problem areas with strategies born of logic, rather than of panic.

Top Supplements
Table 1 lists the top 20 supplements ranked by dollar sales (with growth percentages) for the most recent 52-week period of record. The top selling supplements remain multivitamins, which have led the category for several years. The growth rate of multivitamins exceeds that of the entire category, at 4.7%.

Together with multi's, familiar letter vitamins (B, C, E) and minerals (calcium, iron) comprise six of the top seven selling supplements, as they have for years. Glucosamine/chondroitin products rank third, although growth has slowed to a near stop, as the glucosamine buzz appears to have subsided.

Calcium and iron continue to grow steadily. These two minerals are used primarily by women, as disclosed in NMI's latest Health and Wellness Trends Database (HWTD), which was compiled via a nationally projectable consumer survey in the past 60 days. However, the traditional letter vitamins A through E have either stopped growing altogether or have begun to retreat, as they have been replaced in the consumer consciousness by "hotter" items such as omega 3's, co-enzymes, amino acids and the catchy "antioxidants."

Six of the top 20 sellers are herbals; however, all six of those herbs suffered significant sales declines versus the prior year. Of those top six selling herbals, the smallest decline was shown by garlic, which is the most "mainstream" of the six. As a group, all herbals were down by 9%. Reasons for these declines are explored later.

Top Supplements by Growth
Among those with appreciable sales (in excess of $10 million per annum), the fastest growing supplements are shown in Table 2. Four of the top 10 growth items are not yet within the top 20 rankings by dollar sales, although they are expected to make that breakthrough within the coming year. The rising stars are magnesium (currently #21 in sales), flaxseed (#22), acidophilus (#25) and black cohosh (#26). At current growth rates, and adjusted by trends in household penetration shown in the HWTD, these four are expected to move into the top 20 selling supplements soon.

Greatest Supplement Declines
Table 3 captures those supplements with at least $10 million in dollar sales, which are showing the greatest sales declines. Note that five of these are herbals. Based on sales trends as well as household penetration changes, ginseng and St. John's Wort are expected to fall out of the top 20 sellers in the next year.

The causes of the market changes described above are legion. However, the theme running through all of these changes is "buzz," whether it is good or bad. As consumers gain knowledge of a particular supplement, there appears to be a point of diminishing returns, after which they grow weary of that supplement and seek to move on to a younger, more attractive substance. Thus the decline in sales of vitamins C and E, which are certainly known for their antioxidant effects, and the simultaneous sales increase for those supplements packaged as "antioxidants."

Herbs were once hailed as natural wonders of ancient/native/shamanic/aboriginal medicine, and sales grew. However, when questions of potency, efficacy and herb/drug interactions were raised publicly, sales began a decline, which has yet to abate.

This cycle of familiarity breeding contempt once took years to occur, as evidenced by the letter vitamins. However, as with everything in modern times, the period of this cycle is shrinking, due to greater availability of information, as well as to a wider array of supplement products from which to choose. Change is happening at an ever-increasing rate.

Consumers are torn between conflicting messages and desires. Many believe that nutrition can and ought rightly be obtained in the foods they eat, as captured in a statement attributed to E.R. Squibb: "Adam and Eve ate the first vitamins, including the package."

At the same time, however, consumers are also concerned that the foods they eat have been emptied of their essential nutrients by modern production methods, as summarized in a statement by Richard Gordon, "Vitamins are chemicals in food clinically conspicuous by their absence." This belief leads consumers to seek to supplement their diets with the necessary vitamins and minerals not found in the foods they eat, thus leading them back to the supplement store.

Along with the buzz, consumers also show evidence of unreasonable expectations as to the benefits expected from these supplements. When queried as to their reasons for ceasing use of vitamins and/or minerals, 42% of consumers list the lack of recognizable benefits as their top reason for no longer using these products. For herbal supplements, lack of benefits is listed as the reason for cessation of usage by more than 50% of consumers.

Price is also a notable reason for stopping the use of supplements as 30% of consumers of vitamins and 25% of herbal users said price was a reason to cease use. Most interestingly, "overall credibility" ranks low, with only 6-7% of consumers citing it as a reason for ceasing use. Consumers apparently believe in the products, but they appear to want faster, or more noticeable results, at a lower price.

The only supplements, which seem not to have reached the point of diminishing returns for consumers are multivitamins, iron and calcium, all of which maintain high sales and steady growth. These products must obviously provide the consumer with some noticeable results, and are also highly recommended by physicians as beneficial. However, if top growing supplements such as omega 3's and flaxseed fail to deliver the benefits expected (even if unreasonably) by consumers, they will join the legion, which have fallen from grace to be replaced by the next trumpeted supplement as the cycle continues.

About the author:
Joseph Marra is director of marketing at The Natural Marketing Institute, Harleysville, PA. He can be reached at 215-513-7300; Fax: 215-513-1713; E-mail: joe@nmisolutions.com; Website: www.nmisolutions.com.