Emerging Demographic Trends

Recent demographic shifts are creating new market opportunities.

By Gregory Stephens, RD

Research has consistently shown that demographic trends drive shifts in the food and nutrition industry in terms of product development and marketing. For instance, over the past few years the increasing prevalence of obesity in the U.S. has driven growth through a range of products. Nutritional markets have seen a proliferation of products addressing health risk factors related to obesity, specifically the dietary management of type 2 diabetes (including a new market for adolescent “non-insulin dependent diabetes”), cholesterol reduction and osteoarthritis. Understanding emerging trends should provide valuable “food for thought” as you consider how they will affect your business and new product pipeline.

Each year The Natural Marketing Institute (NMI) publishes the top trends affecting consumer purchasing behavior. These trends present new and trended data from all of NMI’s proprietary databases from over 400,000 consumers, and incorporate those consumer views into market activities that explain and reveal each of the trends. NMI’s trends for 2007* include three demographic groups that will have an impact on the health and wellness arena over the next few years: the proliferation of men as primary grocery shoppers; the new working woman (and the impact on kids’ health) and the aging population, many of whom will live to 100 years of age.

Across each of the trends there appears to be an overriding theme evolving—Consumers In Control. A very deep-rooted desire to take more personal control over their lives, in general, and their health, specifically, has emerged. Driven by a desire to be individualistic, consumers have struck a cord, becoming more cynical toward authoritative sources while taking more personal responsibility for their own health decisions.

It’s Reigning Men

Men’s personal care is the fastest growing segment in the bath and body care category, representingnew-found permission for a broader audience of men to fully participate in the category. In part driven by the massification of the “metrosexuals,” the most critical aspect of this trend has been the growth of the youth culture, which places increasing social and media pressure on men to be young, fit and well groomed. While this has been an arena traditionally reserved for women, men are now beginning to feel the impact as well. In addition, the job marketplace is flooded with aging Boomer men who are looking to maintain their competitive advantage through greater investment in their personal appearance.

Generation Y has the widest acceptance of personal care, driving new offerings in the year ahead, specifically those targeting younger men as well as teens and “tweens.”

One of the factors driving this trend is the fact that more men are gaining exposure to the personal care category as a direct result of their participation as primary grocery shoppers. The composition of primary grocery shoppers has shifted significantly since 1999 (Figure 1). In 2006, men comprised 41% of the primary grocery shopper category—up from 26% in 1999. The number of stay-at-home dads has also increased by 46% since 2003!

Because of this demographic shift, men will become increasingly accommodated in the traditionally female environments of grocery, drug and specialty retail as men make purchasing decisions for themselves and their families. However, men shop differently than women, which may lead to unique opportunities in marketing and merchandising. For example, men are more likely than women to want “to be left alone to make decisions,” indicating a desire for environments where men can “discover” products for themselves or take samples home, instead of asking questions of sales people.

In addition, men appear to be more receptive to products designed specifically for them indicating that they may feel a greater permission to try new products that have been positioned under the authority of a “men’s line.” NMI’s research shows that in 2006, 13% of U.S. men purchased products for the face designed specifically for men and the same percentage also bought products for hands/body that were labeled “for men.”

Working Women Revisited (and Their Kids)

After years in the workforce, women—and especially mothers—are revisiting everything from flex time to dinner time as they strive to cultivate a lifestyle that accommodates both their work and their family.

Many Generation X and Y women, now mothers themselves, perceive the cost of their own Boomer mother’s career as too high. Having grown up as “latchkey kids” from divorced households, some are inclined to want to foster a 360° lifestyle.

Part of this re-evaluation is driven by a watershed study that linked women’s entrance into the workforce in the 1970s with a significant decline in the quality of children’s diets and the corresponding increase in childhood type 2 diabetes, childhood obesity and related health implications. By 2000, 67% of mothers were in the workforce, up from 49% in 1970. The proliferation of media coverage given to childhood obesity and its health implications has recently been elevated to a national concern forcing parents to evaluate what, where and how their children eat.

Growing concerns about health and nutrition are resulting in more American families making a commitment to eat dinner at home together at least three times a week. Figure 2 shows both the general population/primary grocery shopper and households with working women who indicate that their families don’t eat together as often as they used to and also that their families don’t eat as healthy. They are also looking for healthy convenience in snacking and meals both at home and away from home.

As women look for these solutions, media icons such as Rachel Ray are filling the void. With her “30-Minute Meals” program, the highest rated show on the Food Network, Rachel’s “let’s throw something together” attitude reflects women’s desire to find ways to get back into the kitchen with simple, quick, nutritious, homemade meals. A world away from the perfectionism typified by the Martha Stewart era of the 1990s, the “semi-scratch” movement embraces the reality of women’s lives, delivering wholesome ideas for quick, on-the-go meals, make-ahead and in-quantity recipes, and time-saving tips.

As working women with children live highly stressful and time-pressed lives, offering solutions that honestly reflect the trade-offs they make on a daily basis is the most relevant strategic approach marketers can make as working women struggle to reclaim and redefine their center.

The Centenarian Century

Baby Boomers will be the first wave of older adults to lead what will be a fundamental shift in the demographic structure of the nation, with 40% of all 65-year-olds likely to reach the age of 90 by 2050.

The sheer number of seniors living past 100, the fastest-growing demographic population, raises key concerns regarding society’s preparedness for healthcare insurance, social services and other fiscal resources required to support the aging. The U.S. government estimates that expenditures on the elderly will triple over the next 75 years. While they currently represent 8% of the GDP, by 2075 they are estimated to account for 23% of the GDP.

While this next generation will be the healthiest, most active, educated and affluent in history, the numbers of those eventually requiring care has tremendous implications for social and health services—not to mention the 14 million families with children who will be helping to care for their aging parents. This fundamental shift in the demographic structure of the nation represents significant opportunities in retail and product marketing, as well as the healthcare services necessary to manage this aging population.

Opportunities abound in the wellness arena for this particular demographic segment, including disease prevention and management, mental function, stress management and energy management. Three of the biggest disease fears that Boomers face include losing mental capacity (53%), heart attack/stroke (47%) and restricted mobility (44%).

Energy management is also a critical emerging platform for Boomers. As Figure 3 illustrates, there is a significant difference between the needs of Boomers regarding their energy level and their satisfaction. From foods and beverages to dietary supplements, this represents a prime opportunity for manufacturers to develop products geared toward energy maintenance. For example, younger Boomers in particular are a strong target for energy/nutrition bars and energy drinks, which address their needs.

Boomers are increasingly sophisticated consumers equipped to discern what is right for them among a widening offering of personalized products and services. From do-it-yourself healthcare to personalized financial planning, Boomers are attempting to take greater control of all aspects of their lives. This trend for greater personal authority and self-discovery represents a wealth of opportunities for health and wellness in particular. Partnering with them as a peer, rather than as an authority, will determine successful brand leadership in the future.

Demographic Shifts Create Opportunities

These recent demographic shifts are creating opportunities for manufacturers, retailers and marketers across all segments of the health and wellness marketplace, including personal care, food/beverages and dietary supplements. Marketers need to address consumers’ increasing desire for control in new ways in 2007 by providing a means of self-discovery of information regarding their products, and finding new relevant communications that will entice their consumer targets to trial and brand conversion. The brand relationship will undergo a metamorphosis from that of the typical icon brand communications to one of a deeper values experience. Consumers want to relate to the brands and products they choose, but ever more so on their terms.NW



*These trends are the result of various NMI research sources, including the Health & Wellness Trends Database (HWTD), the LOHAS Consumer Trends Database (LCTD), the Evolution of Personal Care Database (EPC), Healthy Aging/Boomer Database, HealthBeat Interactive, ESP (e-Screener Panel) and Immerzions, as well as analysis of current activities in the marketplace. NMI databases, now including 400,000+ U.S. consumers, provide comprehensive information across more than 150 product categories.