Dr. A. Elizabeth Sloan09.01.10
The gluten-free market generated $1.6 billion in 2009 and is projected by the Nielsen Co. to grow 15-25% per year to reach $2.6 billion by 2012. Sales of gluten-free products rose 74% in the U.S. between 2004 and 2009. Sales of gluten-free grocery items hit $1.2 billion in 2009, up nearly 14% in the natural channel and more than 11% in conventional stores (SPINS/NFM, 2010).
Explosive interest in digestive health, “free-from” and non-allergic/sensitive products—and trendy eating patterns particularly among young adults—have helped grow the gluten-free market beyond its rightful base of 3 million American celiac disease sufferers and those with true gluten sensitivities.
Only 17% of consumers are trying to deliberately “avoid/reduce” wheat gluten in 2010, according to the Hartman Group. Most important, 72% of Gen Yers, 73% of Gen Xers and 59% of Boomers are either unfamiliar with gluten or don’t know whether it is good or bad. Only 14% of grocery shoppers said gluten-free was “very important” on a food label in 2009; 59% “not at all important” per FMI.
But while gluten-free may well be among the major nutrition marketing anomalies of recent years, the question is whether it will be sustainable in the long-term. After all, short-lived media-hyped associations with autism, learning disabilities, weight gain, etc.—and Oprah!—initially drove gluten-free into the spotlight. The latest media plug comes from The View’s Elizabeth Hasselbeck with her new book The G-Free Diet: A Gluten Survival Guide.
Nielsen reports gluten-free was #2 on the list of fastest growing health claims on store brands in 2009, with sales of $279 million, suggesting that consumers might not be willing to pay a premium for this product attribute in the future. Moreover, rampant use of gluten-free claims on products that don’t naturally contain gluten, e.g., fruit juice, may well lessen its appeal, simply becoming a calling card for gut friendly products in the long run. Perhaps the most influential news negatively impacting the prospects for gluten-free products is that some experts claim that following a gluten-free diet without having celiac disease can be harmful to health—leading to weight gain, lower energy levels, and low blood sugar induced headaches. This is because products that are gluten-free also add sugar, fat and salt—ingredients that healthy consumers are trying to avoid.
Market Potential
According to Sloan Trends’ TrendSense model, gluten-free reached mass market status in 2008, when it crossed into the Commercialization Phase. Moreover, with no immediate signs of slowing down, it is currently supported by strong and accelerating Medical Counts, which typically would drive increased marketability of gluten-free in the consumer marketplace for the next few years. However, upon further investigation of gluten’s current health linkages, two patterns emerge which suggest that gluten-free might not remain a strong market in the future.
First, none of gluten’s most popular health linkages—kids, celiac, allergy or digestion—have reached mass market status. Rather they remain in the Popularization Phase, “on target” only to condition-specific, very health-conscious and/or specialty channel shoppers, indicating there are other factors that are likely driving and potentially artificially inflating this trend longer term, e.g., general digestive, free-from or even “gourmet trendy” behavior.
Secondly, research activity is squarely focused—and accelerating—only for the gluten/celiac connection, with Medical Counts more than double the research effort of other linkages. Gluten/allergy is only toying with crossing over the Medical Threshold, which signals the beginning of a long-term sustainable trend. Moreover, with the current medical effort focused on celiac, new findings will be narrower and may well help to limit its appeal to the population overall—and the media—in the long-term.
